In this book, Elias relates finance to the changing demographics of America and the rest of the world. His predictions about the future global economy are based on solid research and historical comparison. He focuses on Blue chip investing and gives Solid low-mid level risk advice.
He actually gives recommendations on specific companies. His diversified portfolios allow for investors to invest using his advice with some freedom. This is the best book on the market and investing I have ever read. A must read for newcomers and veterans.
This book discusses some of the major trends occurring in the world likely to affect stock values and gives some good investing advice.
Call David Elias an optimist. He expects the Dow Jones Industrial Average to hit 40,000 by the year 2016, and he stands by his prediction, even in the wake of the stock market down turn. His target doesn't sound so outlandish if you consider that, in order to hit 40,000, the Dow must rise by only 9% annually in the next 16 years. (Investors already have accustomed themselves to much grander annual returns.) However, Elias, an investment adviser, might strike some readers as a bit too cheery. He says interest rates and inflation will remain low for a decade, and he predicts that the developing world will goose profits by buying ever-increasing quantities of products from U.S. companies. Elias also argues that the much-feared backlash from Baby Boomers pulling out of the market after they retire will prove a myth. While Elias' outlook is relentlessly buoyant, we [...] recommend his information to investors and his book's ripe conversational fodder to futurists and analysts.
If you do care about where the Dow will be in the future, the arguments relate to the historical growth rate of the Dow, the growth of foreign economies stimulating demand for U.S. exports, the need for more privatized investing for Baby Boomer retirements, the need for the government to spend less money when the Boomers retire, the recent tendency to have lower inflation and interest rates, and the likelihood that technology will drive up productivity.
Of course, to really know what the Dow will do, you need to forecast which stocks will be in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Every time one of them gets into trouble or is acquired, a new, faster growing company is added. That's a major source of the growth of the Dow.
In the second part of the book, the author builds investment strategies. These are basically all rest on the observation that the change in the price of a stock has been 31 percent from the market, 12 percent from the industry you are in, 37 percent from the industry segment you are in, and 20 percent from which company you are. That analysis is accurate to this point.
The author then concludes that the top sectors through 2016 will be Capital Goods Technology stocks (computers and software companies), Health Care, and Financial Services. Concentrated portfolios of a few large cap stocks are then suggested as a way to outperform the market.
With the Dow heading rapidly below 8000 this book's predictions are really looking great. We only need a 500% gain to get to the levels expected, so that's good... Elias also argues that the much-feared backlash from Baby Boomers pulling out of the market after they retire will prove a myth. While Elias' outlook is relentlessly buoyant, we recommend his information to investors and his book's ripe conversational fodder to futurists and analysts.
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