[University of Michigan] Model Thinking - Modeling Systems (2012)

about the Course We Live in a Complex World with Diverse People, Firms, and governments Whose behaviors aggregate to Produce novel, Unexpected Phenomena. We see political uprisings, market crashes, and a never ending array of social trends. How do We make sense of IT? Models. Evidence shows that people who think with models consistently outperform those who don't. And, moreover People Who Think with lots of models outperform People Who Only use one.

Why do models make us better Thinkers? Models help us to better Organize information - to make sense of Fire Hose That hairball or of data (Choose your metaphor) available on the Internet. Models improve our abilities to make accurate forecasts. They help us make better decisions and adopt more effective strategies. They even CAN Improve our ability to design and Institutions Procedures. In this class, I present a Starter Kit of models: I start with models of Tipping Points. I Move on to explain the models Cover wisdom of crowds, models Show That why some Countries are rich and some are Poor, models and help unpack That the Strategic Decisions of Politicians and Firm. The models covered in this class Provide a Foundation for Future Social science classes, whether they be in economics, political science, business, or sociology. Mastering this material will give you a huge leg up in advanced courses. They help you Also in life. Here's How Will the course work. For Each Model, I present a Short, Easily digestible Overview Lecture. Then, I'll dig deeper. I'll go into the technical details of the model. Those technical lectures won't require calculus but be prepared for some algebra. For all the lectures, I'll offer some questions and we'll have quizzes and even a final exam. If you decide to do the deep dive, and take all the quizzes and the exam, you'll receive a certificate of completion. If you just decide to follow along for the introductory lectures to gain some exposure that's fine too. It's all free. And it's all here to help make you a better thinker!

Introduction: Why Model?

Segregation and Peer Effects

Aggregation

Decision Models

Thinking Electrons: Modeling People

Categorical and Linear Models

Tipping Points

Economic Growth

Diversity and Innovation

Markov Processes

Lyaponuv Functions

Coordination and Culture

Path Dependence

Networks

Randomness and Random Walks

Colonel Blotto

Prisoners' Dilemma and Collective Action

Mechanism Design

Learning Models: Replicator Dynamics

Prediction and the Many Model Thinker